地球物理学论坛：Predicting catastrophic rock slope failures via dragon-king detection

报告嘉宾：Didier Sornette，欧洲科学院、瑞士工程院院士

报告时间：2023 年11月04日（周一）下午14:30

报告地点：地质灾害国家重点实验室学术报告厅

                 腾讯会议 523 784 7557（线上）                  

报告简介

-A slope approaching failure tends to exhibit a phase transition from secondary to tertiary creep.

-Tertiary creeps of catastrophic landslides accommodate dragon-kings showing statistically different properties than secondary slope creeps.

-A predictive framework is developed to forecast catastrophic landslides by detecting signatures typical of the emergence of dragon-kings.

-A phase diagram characterizes the detectability of dragon-kings against black-swans and discriminates catastrophic and slow landslides.

-The stochastic Kesten process reproduces the phenomenology of intermittent bursts and inverse gamma velocity distribution of secondary creep.

-A nonlinear stochastic dynamical process captures the tertiary creep of a slope evolving into a slow or catastrophic landslide.

主办单位：        

成都理工大学地球物理学院

地球勘探与信息技术教育部重点实验室

协办单位：                      

石油圈

深圳面元智能科技有限公司

北京赛斯默微科技有限公司

成都市科学传播学会

2023年11月1日